Task 4.5

| Leader | – | Key words | – | Presentation | – | Work plan | – | Involved teams |

Task 4.5: EU policies and ecosystem services change over time

| Leader |
Luc Doyen

| Key words |

| Presentation |

The objective here will be to simulate the impact of EU policies on ecosystem service changes over time. First, we will adapt and calibrate existing bio-economic models so they can be used in a national analysis of ecosystem services with a dynamic framework (Mouysset et al. 2012). These models will integrate policy drivers, and land use and ecosystem service dynamics, at multiple scales (from NUTS2 to national scale). We will explicitly model the ecological processes of bird community dynamics, as driven by land use options. Second, we will perform a trade-off analysis in a dynamical framework, where nonlinearity, abrupt changes, and irreversibility thresholds will be quantified. In the trade-off analysis, we will rely on co-viability modelling tools (developed by SADAPT and MNHN), which enable expression of different ecosystem services in their own units (i.e., no monetisation) and with no a priori weighting. Finally, based on inputs from WP7, we will define scenarios for different EU policies (e.g., ecological focus areas; extensification/intensification scenarios; and crop rotation diversification), and we will analyse their impact ecosystem service and bird community trends.

| Involved teams |