| Leader | – | Key words | – | Presentation | – | Work plan | – | Involved teams |
Task 2.2: Models for the analysis of EU land changes
| | Leader | |
 Peter Witzke | EuroCARE | |
To articulate between global (task 2.1) and EU drivers, we will (i) combine GLOBIOM with CAPRI to model land use in EU countries; (ii) estimate supply and demand of agricultural products and required land; and (iii) estimate other factors that affect ecosystem services (e.g., fertiliser inputs, water requirements, and GHG emissions). This will create a regionalised analysis of land allocation that is influenced by both exogenous and domestic policies. The CAPRI system will include land supply and transformation functions that describe (i) the substitution between arable and permanent grassland on one level, and (ii) the substitution of agricultural land with non-agricultural land, which is potentially usable for agriculture, on a higher level. Potentially usable, agricultural land is currently treated as an aggregate buffer, which we formerly and empirically specified, based on Britz et al. (2011), with the Dyna-CLUE model. Under TRUSTEE, we will disaggregate this approach to explicitly identify how we substituted agriculture with forestry and other land uses. Estimates from task 2.3 will be included in the CAPRI modelling framework, acknowledging geophysical and other information. Behavioral functions that cause changes in land use will be driven by relative returns and will be adapted to regional resolution in CAPRI.
Land use choices will be represented in the partial equilibrium and layer parts of the regional Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGEs), for all NUTS 2 regions of the EU. While some aspects of these models need improvement, such as the specification of Rural Development policies (see task 3.5), the models remain operational as a result of work from the FP7 CAPRI-RD project. Improved datasets and empirical estimates under TRUSTEE will enhance the usefulness of the CGE layer for assessing the impacts of EU policies on allocation of land under alternative scenarios. The development and calibration of a complete set of NUTS2 region models will allow us to simulate the impacts of rural development measures that target factors like land, capital, and labor and non-agricultural sectors, such as tourism and construction. Model focus will be on representing linkages between urban and rural areas. The policy simulations from these models will provide the background and the motivation for more detailed analyses in the form of case studies, where rural/urban interactions will be studied in detail (WP3 and WP5). The case studies should provide feedback data for better calibration of the different CAPRI modules.