Task 2.1

| Leader | – | Key words | – | Presentation | – | Work plan | – | Involved teams |

Task 2.1: Global drivers of EU land use

| Leader |
Petr Havlík

| Key words |

| Presentation |

Land use changes are driven by complex interactions from different domestic policies but also by drivers that are considered exogenous to EU decision makers. The purpose of Task 2.1 is to identify and to assess drivers at global scales, and to construct the framework that links them to the EU land use dynamics. Modelling of such drivers requires instruments that account for both biophysical and economic determinants (e.g., population growth, global demand for feedstock, climate change, and global resource scarcity). The first step is to identify the different drivers and channels that influence land use. The second step will create prospective scenarios of medium and long term global dynamics that can affect land use in the EU.

Coupling economic data with data on land allocation, climate, and hydrologic resources (WP1) will be used to link the international and EU policies and drivers. Global models that have been developed in other FP7 projects will be expanded to assess the impact that the macroeconomic environment has on the EU land market. This occurs in GLOBIOM (i.e., it interacts with the CAPRI model used in task 2.2) and the general equilibrium model, MIRAGE. GLOBIOM will be used in our global analysis of the drivers of land use change and their impacts on both the agricultural sector and its related environmental parameters. The detailed representation of the forestry sector is a major asset of GLOBIOM, helping to correctly assess the global scarcity of land in various regions. Scenarios will include important macro-economic drivers (e.g., GDP, population growth, food diet shifts, technological change), as well as bioenergetic policy. In addition to insight into the global drivers that affect land use changes in EU countries, the simulation will provide information on how EU policies impact the global agricultural and forestry sector, including environmental (biodiversity, input requirements, deforestation), and social and economic (food security, prices, trade, production and demand quantities) implications, thus accounting for global feedbacks.

| Involved teams |