Baseline validation I

D7.1 Baseline validation I

› Authors: Blanco Maria, Martínez Pilar
› Nature: Report
› Dissemination: Public
› Due date: Month 6 (March 2016)
› Submission: Delivered
› DownloadD7-1-I Baseline Validation I

Executive summary|

The objective of this deliverable is to review the methodologies used to generate and validate agricultural baselines relevant for partial equilibrium analysis of agricultural and trade policies, with a focus mainly on medium-term projections for agricultural market developments.

In order to analyse the main approaches used to generate agricultural baselines, we have
performed a literature review of the main agricultural outlooks and their baseline construction process from global to regional scale. At worldwide level, USDA, FAPRI and OECD-FAO publish each year an agricultural outlook including 10-year projections for agrifood markets. At the European Union level, DG-AGRI provides 10-year prospects for agricultural markets and income on a yearly basis.

The analysis shows that the baseline definition process is quite similar across outlooks, but
some differences can be observed due to the distinct weights of models and experts in the procedure, some baselines being more model-based while others are more expert-based.

Agricultural baselines are used as a benchmark for analysing alternative policy scenarios. Nevertheless, not all partial equilibrium models are suited to generate baselines; while some of them are used both for baseline definition and scenario analysis, other models are calibrated to a given baseline before being applied in policy assessment. For instance, the medium-term baseline of the CAPRI model is calibrated to the DG-AGRI baseline.

Besides these medium-term projections, the IMPACT model provides a long-term vision about
agricultural commodity markets and food security. In recent years, other models apart from
IMPACT have been adapted to simulate long-term drivers of agricultural commodity markets and land use. Among these models we find the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), the Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) and CAPRI.

Before using these agricultural baselines as a reference scenario for further policy analysis, a validation process should be undertaken to check the quality of the projections. In this sense, the principal aspects to be considered in the validation process are discussed in this document.

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